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Impacts of MQM withdrawal from government

January 2 2011

It is just a little while before that MQM have withdrawn their support from a PPP lead coalition government. In this way PPP lead coalition have 158 members of parliament against 174 members in opposition. It simply sound “lost majority”.

The decision of MQM is the index of great political maturity and a gesture of public politics. In this way MQM has put a pressure on government that they have to take decision in public interest otherwise they shall have to face the music. Equally they have given a testing political time to PML – N.

Actually the decision of MQM shall have to be faced by PML – N first. As they have 91 members in National Assembly so now if they want they can lead any antigovernment act that is now more than due on them. If they will not do it then people shall consider them an integral part of government.

It is basically the test of PML – N as I said and the strategy of PML – N will define the future of PPP government. It means MQM has developed a classic POLITICAL DERIVATIVE whereby now the existence of PPPP government is underlying in the strategy of PML – N.

PML – N is in a difficult situation. They can not afford any election before 2013 due to aggressive movements in Southern Punjab by PML Q & MQM and their internal disorganization . But if they would give a way to PPP to rule this country till 2013 then they shall be considered as the partners in chaos from 2008 – 2013 and this can certainly hit their reputation.

They are screwed in the middle anyways. Even they have lesser political brain to manage this kind of situations, an additional chaos for them. In this regard PML – N is also put in danger by the withdrawal of MQM from PPP lead coalition. This is where MQM’s politics is highly improved in the first decade of this century. They are really working their actions on merit of people’s betterment and politically they are well timed.

Regarding Pakistan Peoples Party; so there is hardly anything left. If they shall go to save their government so it can be possible in two ways. First; to get MQM and JUI back, it looks difficult or second; they get some members bought from PML Q or HK.

PPP need 172 members to sustain the government. They have 158 as per logical count. I think there are some political alternatives available within the framework of my above mentioned way outs. May be they can have 172 end of the day or they can run the government with 158 with the cooperation of some of their friends on opposition benches.

The biggest threat to PPP is that if they are going to save government they can break PPP. This can be done if they shall have some parliamentarians from PML - Q [Ex-Musarraf people] or if they shall have a weak Prime Minister that shall depend a lot on opposition. So logically the PM shall have to facilitate others more than his own members and this can distribute PPP. I think Mr. Zardari is not so innovative otherwise he can handle the situation in other way by making a Prime Minister from lesser count parties and ask them to solve the issues that they are talking about. It can even expose his own-made corruption, so not a good idea. I think politicians in Pakistan are not that qualified for tricks like this even how politcally beneficial these innovative acts would be.

I think the best option with PPP in this moment is that the Prime Minister should ask the President to dissolve the parliaments and call for The National Elections. Even if they shall have poor results in near future but this is the only way to save something for PPP in future, if not something as great as Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto had left for them that they have lost.

As per my understanding of PPP’s rule greedy politics, they shall try their best to save their government and to the extent the split in opposition can support their cause but this never means the success of PPP. They have started descend from the power scenes of Pakistan and the future for these type of political parties shall not be easy in awakening Pakistan.

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Mr. Omer

Mr. Omer [1982 born] started  his professional career as a commercial / investment banker after achieving Gold Medal in Finance at master level from University of Karachi in 2006.

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